Saturday, October 19, 2013

Will Military Strikes in Syria Cause Higher Oil Prices?




As think-tanks in the United States and Europe contemplate launching military strikes in Syria, the unease in the country and the further instability in the Middle Eastern regions are impacting the financial markets.

However nowadays, the oil prices have soared up to a six-month high. Analysts from the bank Societe Generale hint that the oil price can finally increase to $125 if air strikes are released and $150 a barrel in the case if military stroke disturbs production in the region.

And this can go beyond all-time high of $147 a barrel noticed during the financial crisis in 2008. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has already predicted rise in the oil prices of $120-$130 a barrel- according to the report published in BBC news.

This is notwithstanding, de fecto that oil production in Syria is itself negligible to the global market. Moreover, even before the crisis that swallowing up the country now, Syria scarcely exported 150,000 barrels a day to foreign buyers-particularly the European Union. Even when sanctions were compelled on the regime of Bashar al-Assad in 2011, the oil exports were completely stopped and recently this country is estimated to produce only 50,000 barrels per day.

But the worry among the investors is that any Western connection in Syria can infiltrate neighboring countries into the fray and the contravention can spill out breaking the borders. And this can include neighboring Baghdad which produces significant 3 million barrels of oil a day- i.e 3% of global consumption. Unfortunately without any delay, local al-Qaeda activists have started operating in the northern Syria.

Alongside these, there is also concern over how Iran will react to military strikes. Because it has long been since Iran has supported Assad regime over the last two years, regardless of increasing international pressure and supporting financial and military supports. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei of Iran has already proclaimed, ‘‘Western attack as a great disaster for the regions,’’ as published in BBC news. Even in the past, Iran threatened cutting off the oil supply if it was attacked by the United States or Israel.

Further it is also uncertain how major oil producers will reflect if western attack takes place. Because, Saudi Arabia has already stood up with Assad regime against all the rebels.

Even though the risk of military attacks, oil investing news summed up that oil prices has been creeping up for the time being, long before the warning of military strokes in Syria became an impeding possibility.

The consequences contained disruptions to production, especially in Libya where armed activists still control over the country. Similarly, the lack of security has witnessed oil production frequently disrupted, whilst industrial actions have barred exports at Libyan ports.

At the same time oil demands have stepped up as the United States and Europe recover from recession; additionally demand from China has also held up. However there are some analysts who are of optimistic views and suggest that if oil prices do rise extensively, the spike will be short-term.

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